The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has released their outlook for the 2019 Atlantic hurricane season. The NOAA is projecting there to be a near normal Atlantic season.
They are also projecting there to be 9 to 15 named storms, 4 to 8 hurricanes with winds of 74 mph or greater, and 2 to 4 major hurricanes category 3 or higher.
“Average or normal” (over the past 30 years) is defined as 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, with 3 of those being major hurricanes. This outlook does not attempt to show how many of these storms will impact land or the United States.
NOAA will release an update to this outlook in August just ahead of the seasonal historical peak in activity.
“With the 2019 hurricane season upon us, NOAA is leveraging cutting-edge tools to help secure Americans against the threat posed by hurricanes and tropical cyclones across both the Atlantic and Pacific,” said Secretary of Commerce Wilbur Ross. “Throughout hurricane season, dedicated NOAA staff will remain on alert for any danger to American lives and communities.”
This outlook reflects competing climate factors. The ongoing El Nino is expected to persist and suppress the intensity of the hurricane season. Countering El Nino is the expected combination of warmer-than-average sea-surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea, and an enhanced west African monsoon, both of which favor increased hurricane activity.
The official start of the 2019 hurricane season begins June 1st and lasts through November 30th.
“Preparing ahead of a disaster is the responsibility of all levels of government, the private sector, and the public,” said Daniel Kaniewski, Ph.D., FEMA deputy administrator for resilience. “It only takes one event to devastate a community so now is the time to prepare. Do you have cash on hand? Do you have adequate insurance, including flood insurance? Does your family have communication and evacuation plans? Stay tuned to your local news and download the FEMA app to get alerts, and make sure you heed any warnings issued by local officials.”
We aren’t fans of hurricanes here in Beaufort. With both Matthew and Irma making their marks on the Lowcountry, our fingers are crossed that 2019 will offer us a quiet season here in Beaufort.
See the full NOAA report here.
